Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: hopeful statements are issued from various governments. Immense energy is devoted on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from across the border, a ability afforded by current data. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to intercept incoming aerial threats streaked across the sky – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense activated: several firings fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely delivered by Western nations. Every launch shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly transforms into grim resignation: maybe the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a heavy machine gun opened up on a drone close by, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely imported technology. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: seven people killed, damage and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a dependence that European nations are demonstrably unable to substitute in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from Washington generated strong feelings, debate and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new proposal from American administration unfolds according to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, no doubt, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame specific actors of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration works based on a premise well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government presumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does nothing to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from thinking that the situation will not evolve additionally in its favour in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but avoiding a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its favour.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not shift toward internal issues. And although their objective will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to kill the proposed articles of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
