A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in universities but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. They authors two pieces that seek impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates cover identity markers, levies, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will win here and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
